Juhayna

The employs has a monthly payment and an additional commission of what they sell. Because Johanna is a well known brand and have a huge market share sales representatives can easily gain a bigger portion on commission. The company also distributes a part of its profit with its employees. To conclude they use wages, fringe benefits, performance related, and profit sharing system. All of that motivates them as a team to work harder and have a better out come, but like every thing this tool has its advantages and disadvantages.The wages Is the simplest and easiest to use for a big and known company Like Johanna, but Its mall disadvantage Is employs might feel It unfair for them to be paid as others while the other dose not do hisher job. Performance related, it is the best way to manage and control sales representatives, its main disadvantage is when reforming a service it is hared to monitor the employees; Johanna sales representative perform services by giving out questioners and taki ng complains.Then the fringe benefits is giving the employees health insurance that make the employees more loyal and have a low turn in rate, but if the company has a lot of employees that will have a high cost out come. Profit sharing system would make the employees loyal, normally companies don't give out a big share of there profit to the employees for them to feel the difference. Recommendation The company should know haw to motivate every single one of Its employees because every one of them may respond different from the other.The company s o a nave a netter employee loyalty Day upgrading ten 010 Ana excellent employees to a higher position, to reach ultimate satisfaction. They should pick the best of there employees to give them training courses to be the next managers to lead the company to a better future. After setting the goal of the company and achieving it the company should make a party to celebrate their goal, to have a better loyalty.

Organic Food in Spain: Market Segmentation Essay

Abstract In recent years, consumers concerns on environmental and health issues related to food products have increased and, as a result, the demand for organically grown production. Higher costs of production and retailer margins generate a gap between real prices and those consumers are willing to pay for organic food. In this paper, consumer willingness to pay for organic food in two Spanish regions is analyzed. Markets in both regions are segmented considering consumers lifestyles. Results indicate that consumers concerned about healthy diet and environmental degradation are more likely to buy organic food and are willing to pay a higher premium. Organic attributes are easily identified in perishable products as the premium consumers would pay for organic meat, fruits and vegetables is higher. 1 PUBLICADO EN International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, (2001), 3, 207-226. 1 Market segmentation and willingness to pay for organic products in Spain 1. Introduction Food consumption in most developed countries has attained a saturation point in quantity terms, and consumer food choices are broader than in the past. The result is a more diversified consumption. In this saturated market environment, distribution channels, marketing activities, diversification strategies and food quality are increasingly important. In addition, consumers have become more concerned about nutrition, health and the quality of food they eat. The increasing importance of health, and the impact food production has on the environment, on consumer food choice is well documented in the literature (Jolly et al. , 1989; Jordan and Elnagheeb, 1991; Oude Ophius, 1991; Baker and Crosbie, 1993; Grunert and Juhl, 1995; Kleijn et al., 1996; Viaene and Gellynck, 1996; Chupitaz and Keslemont, 1997). As a consequence, organic products production and consumption have grown in recent years. The number of papers which have been devoted to the study of organic food markets has increased (Lampkin, 1989; Beharrel and MacFie, 1991; Landell Mills, 1992; Tregear et al. , 1994; Lin et al. , 1996; Vetter and Christensen, 1996; Thompson and Kindwell, 1998; among others). Organic farming refers to a farming system which uses organic manure, and avoids or largely excludes the use of synthetic fertilizers, pesticides and chemicals. A recent study carried out by FAO (1998) has shown that an adequate management of organic farming generates a positive impact on the environment (e. g. , reduction of water â€Å"contamination†, increased soil fertility due to crop rotation). On the demand side, consumers have positive attitudes towards organic products as they perceive them as healthier than conventional alternatives (Beharrel and MacFie, 1991). In the case of Spain, although the production of organic food products has considerably increased during the past decade, demand is still very low as only 0. 5% of food expenditure is allocated to such products. The main obstacle with organic production seems to be the difficulty in selling organic products in retail food markets. Although consumers search for more diverse, higher quality and healthier food products, organic products face problems related to consumer product acceptability (new product, high price and deficiencies in distribution channels (Roddy 2 et al. , 1994)). On the production side, high costs, especially labor costs, and the difficulty of shifting from conventional to organic farming are also limiting factors (Vetter and Christensen, 1996; Hamiti et al. , 1996). Furthermore, food availability and seasonality influence marketing activities and make it difficult to establish appropriate retailing outlets. Higher costs of production and retailer margins jointly may result in higher prices than consumers are willing to pay for organic food attributes. The objective of this study is to estimate the willingness of different consumer segments in Spain to pay for organic products, in order to assess alternative price strategies carried out by producers. From other studies, it was expected that consumers would be willing to pay a premium for organic products. This expectation is based on the idea that these products are healthier and may diminish negative environmental effects associated with conventional agricultural production. In order to expand the scope of our results, in this study we have considered a wide range of food products: 1) vegetables; 2) potatoes; 3) cereals; 4) fruits; 5) eggs; 6) chicken; and 7) red meat. Among the different methodological alternatives to assess consumers willingness to pay, the contingent valuation (CV) approach was chosen (Hanemann, 1984, 1987). Although CV is a method primarily used for monetary evaluation of consumer preferences for non-market goods (e. g. , unpriced natural resources), it is also useful in this context because the organic market is still too â€Å"thin†, and organic products are not available in all retail outlets. The paper is organized as follows. In the next section, some descriptive statistics on the evolution of organic farming in the European Union (EU) and, particularly, in Spain are shown. A brief description of the survey instrument used is provided in section 3. Next, consumer market segments based on consumers’ lifestyles are defined and characterized taking into consideration both socioeconomic characteristics and attitudes towards organic food products and environmental concerns. In section 5 the willingness to pay of each segment and all products considered are calculated. A brief outline of the theoretical foundation of the CV method is also included. Finally, some concluding remarks are outlined. 2. Relative importance of organic agricultural production in the European Union and Spain 3 Land under organic farming in EU countries has dramatically increased from 425 thousand ha in 1992 to 2.9 million ha in 1999 (Table 1). Although the area has grown seven fold, it still represents only 2. 2% of total cultivated agricultural land. The proportion of land devoted to organic production on total cultivated land varies from country to country. The highest values are found in Austria (8. 4%), followed by Finland (6. 3%), Denmark (5. 5%), Sweden (5. 5%) and Italy (5. 3%). The lowest are found in the rest of the Mediterranean countries (Portugal, Greece and Spain) in spite of the important increase of land devoted to organic products in these countries. Among EU countries the most spectacular increase in land devoted to organic production has taken place in Italy, although a high percentage corresponds to pastures. (Insert Table 1) Organic farming in Spain has been developed only recently but has increased rapidly during the past few years. Land devoted to organic production has increased from 7,900 ha, in 1992, to 352,000 ha, in 1999, when it accounted for 1. 4% of the total utilized agricultural land, still under the European average. Three-fourths of Spanish organic farming is concentrated in three regions: Extremadura (47%), Andalucia (17%) and Castilla-Leon (12%) (Table 2). In relative terms, regions with higher percentages of organic farming on total utilized agricultural area are Canarias (7. 7%), Extremadura (6%) and Comunidad Valenciana (2. 6%). Normally, organic production in each region is highly related to the crops which are traditionally produced there. At the national level, cereals and olives are the main organic crops followed by nuts and fruits. However, it is noticeable that a high percentage of land devoted to pastures is under organic production, mainly concentrated in the central and southern part of Spain. This explains the relative importance of Extremadura and Andalucia in organic production. Navarra, on the other hand, is the region in which more diversification exists, producing a wide variety of organic agricultural products (fruits, vegetables, cereals and meat). (Insert Table 2) Available information on consumption is less precise. According to the European Commission, EU expenditures on organic products accounted for 1. 5 million Euros in 1991, representing 0. 3% of total food expenditures. The proportion varies from country to country. Expenditure on organic products in Denmark lies between 2% to 3% of total food expenditures; in Germany, it represents 1. 2%; in the United Kingdom, Ireland, France and the Netherlands it is 4 less than 1%. In the case of Spain, the relative importance of organic food products is lower, accounting for only 0. 5% of total food expenditures. Comparing the Spanish figures on production and consumption of organic food products, it is clear that production has increased faster than consumption. The demand for organic food in central and northern European countries is growing more rapidly than in Spain. The main consequence is that, today, more than 50% of organically produced fruits and vegetables are sold in foreign markets leaving, to a certain extent, consumers unattended in the domestic market. Producers get a premium when selling in foreign markets and they expect and want to earn the same premium in the domestic market. However, as in Spain most of the conventional food products are less expensive than in other European countries (mainly, pasta, fruits and vegetables), the gap between conventional and organic products prices is higher in Spain, limiting the expansion of organic food consumption. The study tries to provide a better understanding of Spanish consumers in relation to organic food. Assuming that higher prices is the main limiting factor for increasing organic consumption, special attention will be paid to the maximum premium consumers are willing to pay for such products. As a previous step, consumers will be segmented according to their lifestyles and, then, market segments characterized taking into account consumers socioeconomic characteristics and attitudes towards organic food products and environmental concerns. 3. Data The data used here come from a survey conducted in July-August 1997 in two Spanish regions: Navarra and Madrid. Navarra was selected not only because it is one of the most important producing regions in Spain, but also because it produces a wide variety of organic food products. Madrid is one the most important regions, together with Cataluna, in terms of organic food products consumption. Samples in both regions were selected using a stratified random sample of food buyers on the basis of age and district of residence2 . Four hundred respondents were randomly selected and personally interviewed at home in each region. Respondents were the main purchasers of food products within the household. The first question in the questionnaire was respondents’ 2 Census data were available in both regions. 5 degree of knowledge of what an organic product was. If the respondent did not know anything about them, he/she was not interviewed. So, only respondents with at least some knowledge of organic products were considered 3 . Only 10% of respondents in Navarra and 5% in Madrid claimed to buy organic products regularly, while another 55% in Navarra and 42%, in Madrid, were occasional buyers. These percentages are similar to those obtained in other studies ( ullen and Wholegenant, 1991; M Hansen and Sorensen, 1992, 1993). 4. Market segmentation for organic food As mentioned above, the first step in this study was to group consumers into homogeneous clusters. Consumers were segmented according to their lifestyles as previous research has shown that the willingness to pay for an organic product might be influenced by individual ways of living rather than by the usual socioeconomic variables (Hartman and New Hope, 1997). Once the market segments were obtained, they were characterized taking into account both consumers socioeconomic characteristics and their attitudes towards organic food products and environmental issues. Among socioeconomic characteristics, age, gender, education level, family size and income were judged to be the most relevant. Lifestyles as well as attitudes towards environmental issues, on one hand, and towards organic food products, on the other, were measured by three tested scales (the complete scales are shown in the Appendix). Respondents were asked to evaluate, assigning a value from 1 to 7, their agreement with different sentences. These three scales have been reduced by a principal components analysis to extract main dimensions on each aspect. 4 The main results from these analyses follow. i) Lifestyles. Table 3 shows the correlation between the original variables (sentences) and factors obtained from principal components analysis in Navarra and Madrid. In Navarra, lifestyles was summarized in three factors which account for 53% of the total variance (Table 3, top). The first one, ‘Natural food consumption’, explains 30% of the total variance and is linked to 3 Only consumers with at least a certain knowledge on what organic products are were interviewed. In a previous qualitative research, 90% respondents said they had heard or knew something about organic products. More or less the same percentage was found in the survey. Thus, the sample seems reasonably representative. 4 The non-linear principal components analysis (De Leeuw and Rijckevorsel, 1980) was also used as an alternative to condense the information. Results were almost identical to those presented. 6 consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables and the concern for reducing the consumption of red meat, processed food or food with additives. The second factor, ‘Life Equilibrium’, explains 14% of the total variance, and refers to the existence of a real interest on keeping a balance between work and private life, living in a methodical and ordered way and trying to reduce stress. Finally, the third factor contributes to 9% of the total variance. It is called, ‘Health care’, and shows the interest of consumers for keeping themselves healthy, through practicing sports, following a natural diet, controlling salt ingestion and regularly checking their health. In Madrid, four factors were selected which account for 62% of the total variance (Table 3, botton). The first three factors are similar to those obtained in Navarra, but in a different order, indicating that their relative importance differs. The first factor here is, ‘ Health care’, which explains 28% of the total variance and is linked to consumers awareness to regularly check their health. The second factor, ‘Natural food consumption’, contributes to explain 13% of the total lifestyles variance and, as in the case of Navarra, is linked to variables indicating consumers consumption of healthier food products. The third factor, ‘ ife Equilibrium’, has a similar L interpretation to the case of Navarra. Finally, the fourth factor, ‘Mediterranean diet ’, is related to a high consumption of fruits and a moderate consumption of meat. (Insert Table 3) ii) Attitudes towards environmental issues. In relation to attitudes about environmental issues, two factors were selected in both regions which explained 63% and 70% of the total variance in Navarra and Madrid, respectively (Table 4). The first factor, ‘Environmental conservation’, is related to variables indicating that consumers have an active interest in reducing the effect of environmental degradation by recycling products and using recycled products, etc. The second factor, ‘Environmental concerns’, is linked to those variables showing consumers awareness about the negative effect of development on the environment. (Insert Table 4) iii) Attitudes towards organic food products Table 5 shows the results of the principal components analysis carried out on variables related to consumers’ attitudes towards organic food products. The original information was summarized in two and three factors in the cases of Navarra and Madrid, respectively (Table 5). In Navarra the two factors account for 45% of the total variance. The first factor, ‘ Positive aspects’, emphasizes the quality, taste, healthiness, attractiveness and absence of harmful effects 7 of these products. The second factor, ‘Negative aspects’, is related to the perception that organic products are only a new fashion and more expensive than the conventional ones. In Madrid the three factors explain the 59% of the total variance. In this case, the organic food positive aspects were divided in two factors, ‘Quality and healthy aspects’ and ‘External appearance’ (related to organic food products’ attractiveness and taste). The â€Å"negative aspects† factor is related to the same attitudes as in the case of Navarra. (Insert Table 5) Market segmentation The K-means cluster analysis technique (Malhotra, 1993) was used to identify market segments in relation to organic food products. Lifestyles factors (Table 3) were used as segmentation variables. Three segments in Navarra and four segments in Madrid were identified. Each segment was characterized taking into account: consumers’ socioeconomic characteristics (age, gender, education level, family size and income); factors related to attitudes towards environmental issues (Table 4); factors related to attitudes towards organic food products (Table 5); and the consumption level of organic food products 5 . Results from cluster analysis and market segments characterization are shown in Tables 6 and 7, for Navarra and Madrid, respectively. (Insert Table 6) In Navarra, the first segment accounts for 25% of the sample (Table 6). It includes those people who show a leaning towards natural food consumption and a balanced life, but with no excessive care for their health. This is a potential consumer group of organic products as most of respondents occasionally consume them and a high proportion is willing to taste them in the near future. For this reason, the segment is labeled †Likely consumers†. Consumers in this segment are mainly women, middle-aged, with an educational level of high school or less and they positively assess the beneficial aspects of organic food products. The second segment includes 52% of consumers. It is formed by respondents evenly split between men and women. They are also not well educated (high school or less) and 75% are of medium income. They are worried about health and the balance between private life and work, but pay less attention to follow a natural diet. The percentage of regular and occasional 5. Four categories were defined: 1) regular consumption, 2) occasional consumption; 3) no consumption but probably yes in the near future; 4) no consumption at all. 8 consumers is the highest among all segments; therefore this segment is called â€Å"Organic food consumers†. Nevertheless, this big proportion could reflect certain confusion among consumers between real organic products and those grown in home gardens, for self-consumption. This is very frequent in this area. Navarra is a very important producer region of fruits and vegetables and many people living in town keep strong links with rural areas. This fact could also explain the negative value assigned to the â€Å"natural food consumption† factor. Furthermore, no need for a special consideration of healthy diet is shown as it is intrinsic to consumption habits. The third segment accounts for 23% of respondents. This is clearly the least involved group on natural food consumption, life equilibrium and health care and includes the highest percentage of no consumers. The relatively low potential consumption together with the lack of awareness about health and more natural diets suggest that organic consumption in this group will not be stimulated. Therefore, this segment is labeled as â€Å"Unlikely consumers†. Half of consumers in this segment have less than 35 years old. Finally, it is important to note that among the â€Å"unlikely consumers† half of them have more than a high school. Results from segmentation in Madrid are different because of the heterogeneity of an over 5 million inhabitants town (Table 7). Four segments were identified. Half of the consumers within the first segment (23% of the population) are over 60 years old and there are more households with 2 o fewer inhabitants than in the other groups. Consumers in this group are better educated than in other segments. However, almost 90% of consumers are of medium or modest income. They are not very aware of environmental problems but are worried about health issues and try to follow a â€Å"balanced† life. Mediterranean diet is valued positively but consumption of organic products is not of much interest for them as they do not appreciate the positive organic food products attributes. Therefore, this segment is called â€Å"Unlikely mature consumers†. (Insert Table 7) The second segment is similar to the previous one in terms of the consumption level although the percentage of regular and occasional consumers is even lower. In relation to sociodemographic characteristics consumers in this segments are younger, than those of the first segment, the percentage of male consumers is higher and, finally, family size is larger. They are not very involved in environmental issues, have a negative image of organic products and are not worried about diet and health but try to maintain a certain equilibrium between working and 9 private life. This segment is labeled â€Å"Unlikely young consumers† and accounts for 20% of the population. The third segment (22% of the population) is also mainly formed by households with 3 or 4 members (usually a couple with one or two children). The percentage of consumers educated beyond high school is very low in this group (17%). Consumers within this segment are looking for a more natural diet in which Mediterranean products play an important role, although they show a negative attitude towards the external appearance of organic food products. They are occasional buyers of organic food and are likely to increase their consumption if the natural attribute of such products is reinforced. Thus, this segment is called â€Å"Likely consumers†. Finally, the forth segment accounts for 35% of the population and is labeled â€Å"organic food consumers†. The percentage of regular and occasional consumers is the highest in relation to other groups. It is quite similar to the second segment found in Navarra although it is smaller. Consumers do not show special socioeconomic profiles. Only it is noticeable the high percentage of female consumers. People within this group participate more actively in environmental conservation tasks and are more concerned about food diet and health. As it can be observed from tables 6 and 7, market segments found in both regions present certain similarities although they are more heterogeneous in the case of Madrid. The â€Å"organic food consumers† segment is larger in the producing region (Navarra) as previously discussed. In any case, different market segments, with different socioeconomic and lifestyle characteristics, normally mean differences in preferences. In this paper, the main objective was to evaluate the consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for organic products. In the next section we will answer this question and will identify differences across segments in both regions. 5. Willingness to pay: the contingent valuation method Consumers willingness to pay (WTP) for organic food products is here measured using a direct valuation method: contingent valuation (CV). A mixed questioning procedure, normally called closed-ended with follow-up was used. This procedure consists of a dichotomous choice (DC) question and a maximum WTP question. In the DC question, consumers are asked whether or not they are willing to pay a premium, A, to buy an organic food product instead of a i conventional one. The amount Ai is a percentage over the price of the conventional product and 10 differs across consumers (5%, 10%, 15% and 20%)6 . Consumers responses are YES if they are willing to pay at least Ai for an organic product or NO, otherwise. Consumers are then asked for the exact premium they are willing to pay. The dichotomous individual response is linked to the maximum utility choice which allows us to calculate the WTP from appropriate welfare measures (Hanemann, 1984). Hanemann (1984) assumed that consumers know, with certainty, their utility function before being asked and after paying the amount Ai for buying organic food products. However, some components of these utilities are unknown or unobservable by researches who consider them as stochastic. This issue is the crucial assumption which explains the relation between statistical binary response models and the utility maximizing theory (Hanemann, 1984, 1987). Assuming a linear utility function and a logistic distribution function for the binary question, the WTP can be measured through the estimation of the following logistic function (Hanemann, 1984): Pi = (1 + e -(? + ? Ai) )-1 where, Pi : 1 if consumers are willing to pay the amount Ai and 0 otherwise Ai : the four premiums offered to consumers (5%, 10%, 15% and 20%) Therefore, the mean of WTP is calculated as follows: E(WTP) = ? ?0 (1 + e -(? + ? A) )-1 dA = -? /? (1) Survey data consisted of 400 questionnaires but only 360 were available in Navarra and 376 in Madrid for estimation purposes. The rest of questionnaires were dropped out because interviewers had not answered the dichotomous question. Model defined in (1) was transformed to a linear one: DCi = ? + ? Ai where, DCi : is the logarithm of the probability ratio (Pi /1- Pi ) (2). 6 Consumers are randomly offered a premium of 5, 10, 15 or 20% above the marketed price for a conventional product. Our 400 interviews resulted in 100 answers for each amount A i . 11 Tables 8 and 9 show the maximum willingness to pay for various organic products (vegetables, potatoes, cereals, fruits, eggs, chicken and red meat) in Navarra and Madrid 7 . As we were interested in knowing if WTP differences existed across market segments, we tested for differences in WTP using a covariance analysis method. The unrestricted model was equation (1) adding the appropriate dummy variables. Two types of restrictions were tested: i) no differences across all segments; and ii) differences between any pair of segments. Results from Likelihood Ratio tests are shown in Tables 8 and 9. (Insert Table 8) (Insert Table 9) Also, we tested for starting point bias, that is, if premium offered to consumers biased WTP results. A linear regression was used to estimate consumers WTP as a function of the offered premium. A significant relationship would mean that WTP results were biased. Only in the case of potatoes in Madrid, results were conditioned to the offered premium. In the case of Navarra, all estimated parameters in segments 1 and 2 are individually significant at 5% level (Table 8). As expected, ? coefficients are negative, meaning that the higher is the premium (Ai) offered to consumers, the lower is the probability of answering YES. The third column in each segment shows the willingness to pay for organic products. The WTP is significantly different among all segments at 5% significance level (first column in Table 8). However, no differences were found between segment 1 and segment 2, indicating that potential and actual consumers are willing to pay a similar premium for all products. In both segments, the WTP ranges from 15% to 25% over the price of conventional products. Consumers included in the third segment, â€Å"Unlikely consumers†, are more reluctant to pay a premium for an organic product which is consistent with their attitudes and lifestyles. Most of the estimated parameters are not significant indicating that their WTP is zero. Only in the case of eggs is the WTP close to 10%. In general terms, consumers in Madrid were willing to pay a smaller premium for an organic product (Table 9). Furthermore, when compared to Navarra, results obtained in Madrid are substantially different as market segments differ. The most interesting result is that all segments are willing to pay a higher premium for fruits and vegetables. It seems that for 7 For comparison purposes the sample average WTP for different products in Navarra and Madrid are respectively: vegetables (13%, 12%); potatoes (9%, 9%); cereals (10%, 8%); fruits (13%, 13%); eggs (10%, 11%); chicken (13%, 9%) and; red meat (14%, 11%). 12 perishable products, like fruits and vegetables, the specific characteristics of organic production are more appreciated by consumers. Consumers’ WTP is significantly different across all segments when jointly considered. However, differences segment 1, 2 and 3 are quite small and not significant in most products. On the other hand, the â€Å"Organic food consumers† are willing to pay a higher and significantly different premium than the rest for an organic food product. Only for animal products (red meat, chicken and eggs), differences between real and potential consumers (market segments 4 and 3) are not significant. Among â€Å"unlikely consumers† (market segments 1 and 2), the older ones, worried about natural food consumption, are willing to pay a higher premium for organic meat products than the younger. 6. Conclusions Organic farming practices are becoming increasingly popular among producers although they still represent a marginal share of arable land. New possibilities to get subsidies within the Common Agricultural Policy has favored a rapid growth of organic production although a high percentage is devoted to pastures. On the demand side, the increase concerns about health, diet and environmental deterioration have, at least among some market segments, stimulated the demand for organic food. In Spain, organic food production and consumption have grown more slowly than in other â€Å"northern† European countries. One of the main obstacles for organic food expansion in Spain is the existing gap between conventional and organic food prices. Approximately 75% of organic production is exported to foreign countries where food prices are higher than in domestic markets. As the producers price strategy is oriented to fix more or less the same price level in both domestic and foreign markets (mainly in Germany and Denmark where the consumption of organic products has undertaken a noticeable increase in the last years), the result is that the premium Spanish consumers have to pay for organic food products is higher in comparison to other European countries. Two issues were explored which can affect the future development of organic production in Spain. The first was to detect market segments which could be potential consumers of organic food. The second issue was the identification of the maximum premium the various market segments were willing to pay for such products in order to help producers to take adequate pricing strategies in domestic markets. The study was carried out in two Spanish regions: one is 13 an active producing area ( avarra) while the other is the main food consumption market N (Madrid). Differences between regions were also analyzed. Finally, one of the main outcomes of this paper is that it covers a wide range of products in order to make comparisons both between products and market segments. In relation to the first issue, market segments were identified considering consumers lifestyles and, then, were characterized taking into account not only consumers socioeconomic characteristics but also consumption levels and attitudes towards organic food products and environmental issues. Similar segments were obtained in both regions although more heterogeneity was found in the case of Madrid. In general terms, three broad market segments were identified: consumers, likely consumers and unlikely consumers. The surprising result is that organic food consumers in both regions were larger than expected taking into account expenditure figures discussed in section 2. The answer to this surprising result is that in many areas consumers are supplying their own products. They consider them organic, simply because no fertilizers are used, when really they are not, as there is not any official certification. In spite of this result, some concluding remarks can be outlined. In general terms, consumers socioeconomic characteristics are not very relevant when explaining differences among market segments. Lifestyles and attitudes towards environmental issues are key factors explaining organic food consumption and have to be considered when designing appropriate promotion strategies by producers or marketers. In relation to the second issue, three main results were obtained.

The Delphi Technique: Making Sense of Consensus

A peer-reviewed electronic journal. Copyright is retained by the first or sole author, who grants right of first publication to the Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation. Permission is granted to distribute this article for nonprofit, educational purposes if it is copied in its entirety and the journal is credited. Volume 12, Number 10, August 2007 ISSN 1531-7714 The Delphi Technique: Making Sense Of Consensus Chia-Chien Hsu, The Ohio State University & Brian A. Sandford, Oklahoma State University The Delphi technique is a widely used and accepted method for gathering data from respondents within their domain of expertise.The technique is designed as a group communication process which aims to achieve a convergence of opinion on a specific real-world issue. The Delphi process has been used in various fields of study such as program planning, needs assessment, policy determination, and resource utilization to develop a full range of alternatives, explore or expose underlying ass umptions, as well as correlate judgments on a topic spanning a wide range of disciplines. The Delphi technique is well suited as a method for consensus-building by using a series of questionnaires delivered using multiple iterations to collect data from a panel of selected subjects.Subject selection, time frames for conducting and completing a study, the possibility of low response rates, and unintentionally guiding feedback from the respondent group are areas which should be considered when designing and implementing a Delphi study. The Delphi technique, mainly developed by Dalkey and Helmer (1963) at the Rand Corporation in the 1950s, is a widely used and accepted method for achieving convergence of opinion concerning real-world knowledge solicited from experts within certain topic areas.Predicated on the rationale that, â€Å"two heads are better than one, or†¦ n heads are better than one† (Dalkey, 1972, p. 15), the Delphi technique is designed as a group communicatio n process that aims at conducting detailed examinations and discussions of a specific issue for the purpose of goal setting, policy investigation, or predicting the occurrence of future events (Ulschak, 1983; Turoff & Hiltz, 1996; Ludwig, 1997). Common surveys try to identify â€Å"what is,† whereas the Delphi technique attempts to address â€Å"what could/should be† (Miller, 2006).In the literature, Delphi has been applied in various fields such as program planning, needs assessment, policy determination, and resource utilization. Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafson (1975) specifically indicate that the Delphi technique can be used for achieving the following objectives: 1. To determine or develop a range of possible program alternatives; 2. To explore or expose underlying assumptions or information leading to different judgments; 3. To seek out information which may generate a consensus on the part of the respondent group; 4.To correlate informed judgments on a topic spanning a wide range of disciplines, and; 5. To educate the respondent group as to the diverse and interrelated aspects of the topic (p. 11). CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE The Delphi technique is well suited as a means and method for consensus-building by using a series of questionnaires to collect data from a panel of selected subjects (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963; Dalkey, 1969; Linstone & Turoff, 1975; Lindeman, 1981; Martino, 1983; Young & Jamieson, 2001).Delphi, in contrast to other data gathering and analysis techniques, employs multiple iterations designed to Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique develop a consensus of opinion concerning a specific topic. Ludwig (1994) indicates: Iterations refer to the feedback process. The process was viewed as a series of rounds; in each round every participant worked through a questionnaire which was returned to the researcher who collected, edited, and returned to every participan t a statement of the position of the whole group and the participant’s own position.A summation of comments made each participant aware of the range of opinions and the reasons underlying those opinions (p. 55). More specifically, the feedback process allows and encourages the selected Delphi participants to reassess their initial judgments about the information provided in previous iterations. Thus, in a Delphi study, the results of previous iterations regarding specific statements and/or items can change or be modified by individual panel members in later iterations based on their ability to review and assess the comments and feedback provided by the other Delphi panelists.Other notable characteristics inherent with using the Delphi technique are the ability to provide anonymity to respondents, a controlled feedback process, and the suitability of a variety of statistical analysis techniques to interpret the data (Dalkey, 1972; Ludlow, 1975; Douglas, 1983). These characteri stics are designed to offset the shortcomings of conventional means of pooling opinions obtained from a group interaction (i. e. , influences of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure for conformity) (Dalkey, 1972).One of the primary characteristics and advantages of the Delphi process is subject anonymity which can reduce the effects of dominant individuals which often is a concern when using group-based processes used to collect and synthesize information (Dalkey, 1972). Additionally, the issue of confidentiality is facilitated by geographic dispersion of the subjects as well as the use of electronic communication such as e-mail to solicit and exchange information.As such, certain downsides associated with group dynamics such as manipulation or coercion to conform or adopt a certain viewpoint can be minimized (Helmer & Rescher, 1959; Oh, 1974; Adams, 2001). Controlled feedback in the Delphi process is designed to reduce the effect of noise. Based upon Dalkey (1972), noise is that communication which occurs in a group process which both distorts the data and deals with group and/or individual interests rather than focusing on problem solving.As a result, the information developed from this kind of communication generally consists of bias not related to the purposes of the study. Basically, the controlled feedback process consists of a well organized summary of the prior iteration intentionally distributed to the subjects which allows each participant an opportunity to generate additional insights and more thoroughly clarify 2 the information developed by previous iterations.Through the operation of multiple iterations, subjects are expected to become more problem-solving oriented, to offer their opinions more insightfully, and to minimize the effects of noise. Finally, the ability to use statistical analysis techniques is a practice which further reduces the potential of group pressure for conformity (Dalkey, 1972). More specifically, statistical ana lysis can ensure that opinions generated by each subject of a Delphi study are well represented in the final iteration because, â€Å"at the end of the exercise there may still be a significant spread in individual opinions† Dalkey, 1972, p. 21). That is, each subject would have no pressure, either real or perceived, to conform to another participant’s responses that may originate from obedience to social norms, customs, organizational culture, or standing within a profession. The tools of statistical analysis allow for an objective and impartial analysis and summarization of the collected data. THE DELPHI PROCESS Theoretically, the Delphi process can be continuously iterated until consensus is determined to have been achieved.However, Cyphert and Gant (1971), Brooks (1979), Ludwig (1994, 1997), and Custer, Scarcella, and Stewart (1999) point out that three iterations are often sufficient to collect the needed information and to reach a consensus in most cases. The fol lowing discussion, however, provides guidelines for up to four iterations in order to assist those who decide to use the Delphi process as a data collection technique when it is determined that additional iterations beyond three are needed or valuable. Round 1: In the first round, the Delphi process traditionally begins with an open-ended questionnaire.The open-ended questionnaire serves as the cornerstone of soliciting specific information about a content area from the Delphi subjects (Custer, Scarcella, & Stewart, 1999). After receiving subjects’ responses, investigators need to convert the collected information into a well-structured questionnaire. This questionnaire is used as the survey instrument for the second round of data collection. It should be noted that it is both an acceptable and a common modification of the Delphi process format to use a structured questionnaire in Round 1 that is based upon an extensive review of the literature.Kerlinger (1973) noted that the use of a modified Delphi process is appropriate if basic information concerning the target issue is available and usable. Round 2: In the second round, each Delphi participant receives a second questionnaire and is asked to review the items summarized by the investigators based on the information provided in the first round. Accordingly, Delphi panelists may be required to rate or â€Å"rank-order Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique items to establish preliminary priorities among items.As a result of round two, areas of disagreement and agreement are identified† (Ludwig, 1994, p. 54-55). In some cases, Delphi panelists are asked to state the rationale concerning rating priorities among items (Jacobs, 1996). In this round, consensus begins forming and the actual outcomes can be presented among the participants’ responses (Jacobs, 1996). 3 Rescher (1959), Klee (1972), and Oh (1974) concur that choosing individuals who are simply knowledgeable concerning the target issue is not sufficient nor recommended.Considering the necessity of selecting the most qualified individuals, Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafson (1975) specifically state that three groups of people are well qualified to be subjects of a Delphi study. The authors recommend: â€Å"(1) the top management decision makers who will utilize the outcomes of the Delphi study; (2) the professional staff members together with their support team; and (3) the respondents to the Delphi questionnaire whose judgments are being sought† (p. 85). Delphi subjects should be highly trained and competent within the specialized area of knowledge related to the target issue.Investigators need to closely examine and seriously consider the qualifications of Delphi subjects. Oh (1974) indicates that choosing appropriate subjects is generally based on the judgment and discretion of the principal investigators. Jones and Twiss (1978) state that the prin cipal investigators of a Delphi study should identify and select the most appropriate individuals through a nomination process. Ludwig (1994) also states that, â€Å"solicitation of nominations of well-known and respected individuals from the members within the target groups of experts was recommended† (p. 2). Generally, the pool of selecting possible Delphi subjects is likely to use positional leaders (Kaplan, 1971; Ludwig, 1994), to follow a review of authors of publications in the literature (Meyer, 1992; Miller, 2001), and/or to make contacts with those who have firsthand relationships with a particular issue (Jones, 1975; Anderson & Schneider, 1993). The latter basically consists of individuals who are primary stakeholders with various interests related to the target issue or research effort.Concerning the appropriate number of subjects to involve in a Delphi study, Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafson (1975) recommend that researchers should use the minimally sufficient n umber of subjects and should seek to verify the results through follow-up explorations. Ludwig (1994) notes that the number of experts used in a Delphi study is â€Å"generally determined by the number required to constitute a representative pooling of judgments and the information processing capability of the research team† (p. 52). However, what constitutes an optimal number of subjects in a Delphi study never reaches a consensus in the literature.Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafson (1975) suggest that ten to fifteen subjects could be sufficient if the background of the Delphi subjects is homogeneous. In contrast, if various reference groups are involved in a Delphi study, more subjects are anticipated to Round 3: In the third round, each Delphi panelist receives a questionnaire that includes the items and ratings summarized by the investigators in the previous round and are asked to revise his/her judgments or â€Å"to specify the reasons for remaining outside the consensu s† (Pfeiffer, 1968, p. 52). This round gives Delphi panelists an opportunity to make further clarifications of both the information and their judgments of the relative importance of the items. However, compared to the previous round, only a slight increase in the degree of consensus can be expected (Weaver, 1971; Dalkey & Rourke, 1972; Anglin, 1991; Jacobs, 1996). Round 4: In the fourth and often final round, the list of remaining items, their ratings, minority opinions, and items achieving consensus are distributed to the panelists.This round provides a final opportunity for participants to revise their judgments. It should be remembered that the number of Delphi iterations depends largely on the degree of consensus sought by the investigators and can vary from three to five (Delbecq, Van de Ven, Gustafson, 1975; Ludwig, 1994). Subject Selection Regarding the selection of subjects for a Delphi study, choosing the appropriate subjects is the most important step in the entire p rocess because it directly relates to the quality of the results generated (Judd, 1972; Taylor & Judd, 1989; Jacobs, 1996).Since the Delphi technique focuses on eliciting expert opinions over a short period of time, the selection of Delphi subjects is generally dependent upon the disciplinary areas of expertise required by the specific issue. Regarding any set standards of selecting Delphi subjects, there is, in fact, no exact criterion currently listed in the literature concerning the selection of Delphi participants. That is, â€Å"throughout the Delphi literature, the definition of [Delphi subjects] has remained ambiguous† (Kaplan, 1971, p. 24).Regarding the criteria used to guide the selection of Delphi subjects, individuals are considered eligible to be invited to participate in a Delphi study if they have somewhat related backgrounds and experiences concerning the target issue, are capable of contributing helpful inputs, and are willing to revise their initial or previo us judgments for the purpose of reaching or attaining consensus (Pill, 1971; Oh, 1974). Helmer and Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique be needed.Witkin and Altschuld (1995) note that the approximate size of a Delphi panel is generally under 50, but more have been employed. Ludwig (1997) documents that, â€Å"the majority of Delphi studies have used between 15 and 20 respondents† (p. 2). In sum, the size of Delphi subjects is variable (Delbecq, Van de Ven, & Gustafson, 1975). If the sample size of a Delphi study is too small, these subjects may not be considered as having provided a representative pooling of judgments regarding the target issue.If the sample size is too large, the drawbacks inherent within the Delphi technique such as potentially low response rates and the obligation of large blocks of time by the respondents and the researcher(s) can be the result. Time Requirements Conducting a Delphi study can be time- consuming. Specifically, when the instrument of a Delphi study consists of a large number of statements, subjects will need to dedicate large blocks of time to complete the questionnaires.Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafson (1975), Ulschak (1983), and Ludwig, (1994) recommend that a minimum of 45 days for the administration of a Delphi study is necessary. With regard to the time management between iterations, Delbecq et al. (1975) note that giving two weeks for Delphi subjects to respond to each round is encouraged. Ludwig (1994) indicates, â€Å"a drawback to Delphi was that the questionnaire method may slow the process greatly as several days or weeks may pass between rounds† (p. 54).More specifically, since developing the instrument, collecting the data, and administering the questionnaire are interconnected between iterations, ensuring Delphi subjects respond to the investigators on time does in many ways either promote or prohibit the ability of the investigators in analy zing the data, developing a new instrument based upon the prior responses, and distributing subsequent questionnaires in a timely fashion. These are challenging aspects of conducting a Delphi study and do require proper planning and management. The use and prevalence of electronic technologies (i. e. e-mail, teleconferencing, etc. ) may facilitate those who are interested in using the Delphi technique. Witkin and Altschuld (1995) note that electronic technology provides an opportunity for individuals to more easily employ the Delphi process by taking advantages of, â€Å"(1) the storage, processing, and speed of transmission capabilities of computers; (2) the maintenance of respondent anonymity, and; (3) the potential for rapid feedback† (p. 204). Data Analysis Regarding data analysis, decision rules must be established to assemble and organize the judgments and insights provided by Delphi subjects.However, the kind and type 4 of criteria to use to both define and determine c onsensus in a Delphi study is subject to interpretation. Basically, consensus on a topic can be decided if a certain percentage of the votes falls within a prescribed range (Miller, 2006). One criterion recommends that consensus is achieved by having 80 percent of subjects’ votes fall within two categories on a seven-point scale (Ulschak, 1983). Green (1982) suggests that at least 70 percent of Delphi subjects need to rate three or higher on a four point Likert-type scale and the median has to be at 3. 5 or higher. Scheibe, Skutsch, and Schofer (1975) reveal that the use of percentage measures is inadequate. They suggest that a more reliable alternative is to measure the stability of subjects’ responses in successive iterations. In the Delphi process, data analysis can involve both qualitative and quantitative data. Investigators need to deal with qualitative data if classic Delphi studies, which use open-ended questions to solicit subjects’ opinions, are conduc ted in the initial iteration.Subsequent iterations are to identify and hopefully achieve the desired level of consensus as well as any changes of judgments among panelists. The major statistics used in Delphi studies are measures of central tendency (means, median, and mode) and level of dispersion (standard deviation and inter-quartile range) in order to present information concerning the collective judgments of respondents (Hasson, Keeney, & McKenna, 2000). Generally, the uses of median and mode are favored. However, in some cases, as manifested by Murray and Jarman (1987), the mean is also workable.Witkin (1984) questions the appropriateness of using the mean to measure the subjects’ responses if scales used in Delphi studies are not delineated at equal intervals. In the literature, the use of median score, based on Likert-type scale, is strongly favored (Hill & Fowles, 1975; Eckman, 1983; Jacobs, 1996). As Jacobs (1996) states, â€Å"considering the anticipated consensus of opinion and the skewed expectation of responses as they were compiled, the median would inherently appear best suited to reflect the resultant convergence of opinion† (p. 57).The use of mode is also suitable when reporting data in the Delphi process. Ludwig (1994) specifically addressed that â€Å"the Delphi process has a tendency to create convergence, and though this was usually to a single point, there was the possibility of polarization or clustering of the results around two or more points. In these instances, the mean or median could be misleading† (p. 57). CONSIDERING DELPHI SHORTCOMINGS AND WEAKNESSES Potential of Low Response Rates Due to the multiple feedback processes inherent and integral to the concept and use of the Delphi process, thePractical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique potential exists for low response rates and striving to maintain robust feedback can be a challenge. â€Å"In the Delphi techniq ue, [poor response rate] is magnified fourfold because a maximum of four surveys may be sent to the same panelists† (Witkin & Altschuld, 1995, p. 196). If a certain portion of the subjects discontinue their responses during various stages of the Delphi process, the quality of information obtained could be discounted or at least critically scrutinized.As such, Ludwig (1994) specifically addresses subject motivation as the key to the successful implementation of a Delphi study and investigators need to play an active role in this area to help ensure as high a response rate as possible. Consumption of Large Blocks of Time The Delphi technique can also be time-consuming and laborious. Unlike other data collection techniques such as the telephone survey and the face-to-face administration, which can be simultaneously conducted by a group of people and can be completed in a short period of time if the sample size is small, the Delphi technique is terative and sequential. As a result , the necessity of taking large block of time to successively complete a Delphi process is inescapable. Ludwig (1994) indicates that, â€Å"a drawback to Delphi was that the questionnaire method may slow the process greatly as several days or weeks may pass between rounds† (p. 54). Optimally speaking, the iteration characteristics of the Delphi process provide the opportunities for investigators and subjects to improve the accuracy of the results.In contrast, the same characteristic also increases the workload of investigators and the amount of time needed to successfully complete the data collection process (Cunliffe, 2002). Potential of Molding Opinions The iteration characteristics of the Delphi technique can potentially enable investigators to mold opinions (Altschuld, 2003). An experiment, conducted by Scheibe, Skutsch, and Schofer (1975), indicated that Delphi subjects would rate their responses differently after receiving a distorted feedback.Dalkey and Helmer (1963) a lso noted that, â€Å"some ‘leading’ by the experimenters inevitably resulted from the selection of the information supplied† (p. 467). Moreover, Cyphert and Gant (1971) illustrated that a statement in their study was initially rated below average. However, Delphi subjects rated the statement above average after receiving false feedback. Therefore, Cyphert and Gant (1971) concluded that the Delphi technique could, â€Å"be used to mold opinion as well as to collect [data]† (p. 273).Indeed, â€Å"subtle pressure to conform with group ratings† was one of the major drawbacks in the Delphi technique (Witkin & Altschuld, 1995, p. 188). Delphi investigators need to be cognizant, exercise caution, and implement the proper safeguards in dealing with this issue. 5 Potential of Identifying General Statements vs. Specific Topic Related Information An assumption concerning Delphi participants is that they are equivalent in knowledge and experience (Altschuld & Thomas, 1991). However, this assumption might not be justified.More specifically, the expertise of Delphi panelists could be unevenly distributed, especially in the field of high technology (Marchant, 1988; Altschuld & Thomas, 1991). â€Å"Some panelists may have much more in-depth knowledge of certain topics, whereas other panelists are more knowledgeable about different topics† (Altschuld & Thomas, 1991, p. 187). Therefore, subjects who have less in-depth knowledge of certain topics are unable to specify the most important statements which have been identified by those subjects who possess in-depth knowledge concerning the target issue.The outcomes of a Delphi study could be the results of identifying a series of general statements rather than an in-depth exposition of the topic (Altschuld & Thomas, 1991). SUMMARY The Delphi technique provides those involved or interested in engaging in research, evaluation, fact-finding, issue exploration, or discovering what is actually k nown or not known about a specific topic a flexible and adaptable tool to gather and analyze the needed data. Subject selection and the time frames for conducting and completing a Delphi study are two areas which should be considered carefully prior to initiating the study.The additional precautions concerning low response rates, unintentionally guiding feedback, and surveying panelists about their limited knowledge of the topic rather than soliciting their expert judgments should also be built into the design and implementation of the study. The Delphi technique has and will continue to be an important data collection methodology with a wide variety of applications and uses for people who want to gather information from those who are immersed and imbedded in the topic of interest and can provide real-time and real-world knowledge. REFERENCES Adams, S. J. (2001).Projecting the next decade in safety management: A Delphi technique study. Professional Safety, 46 (10), 26-29. Altschuld, J. W. (2003). Delphi technique. Lecture, Applied evaluation design. The Ohio State University. Altschuld, J. W. , & Thomas, P. M. (1991). Considerations in the application of a modified scree test for Delphi survey data. Evaluation Review, 15 (2), 179-188. Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique Anderson, D. H. , & Schneider, I. E. (1993). Using the Delphi process to identify significant recreation research-based innovations.Journal of Park and Recreation Administration, 11 (1), 25-36. Anglin, G. L. (1991). Instructional technology past, present and future. Englewood, CO: Libraries Unlimited Inc. Brooks, K. W. (1979). Delphi technique: Expanding applications. North Central Association Quarterly, 54 (3), 377-385. Cunliffe, S. (2002). Forecasting risks in the tourism industry using the Delphi technique. Tourism, 50 (1), 31-41. Custer, R. L. , Scarcella, J. A. , & Stewart, B. R. (1999). The modified Delphi technique: A rotational mod ification. Journal of Vocational and Technical Education, 15 (2), 1-10.Cyphert, F. R. , & Gant, W. L. (1971). The Delphi technique: A case study. Phi Delta Kappan, 52, 272-273. Dalkey, N. C. (1969). An experimental study of group opinion. Futures, 1 (5), 408-426. Dalkey, N. C. (1972). The Delphi method: An experimental study of group opinion. In N. C. Dalkey, D. L. Rourke, R. Lewis, & D. Snyder (Eds. ). Studies in the quality of life: Delphi and decision-making (pp. 13-54). Lexington, MA: Lexington Books. Dalkey, N. C. , & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9 (3), 458-467.Dalkey, N. C. , & Rourke, D. L. (1972). Experimental assessment of Delphi procedures with group value judgments. In N. C. Dalkey, D. L. Rourke, R. Lewis, & D. Snyder (Eds. ). Studies in the quality of life: Delphi and decision-making (pp. 55-83). Lexington, MA: Lexington Books. Delbecq, A. L. , Van de Ven, A. H. , & Gustafson, D. H. (1975). Group techniques for program planning. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman, and Co. Douglas, D. C. (1983). A comparative study of the effectiveness of decision making processes which utilize the Delphi and leaderless group methodologies.Unpublished doctoral dissertation, The Ohio State University, Columbus. Eckman, C. A. (1983). Development of an instrument to evaluate intercollegiate athletic coaches: A modified Delphi study. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, West Virginia University, Morgantown. Green, P. J. (1982, March). The content of a college-level outdoor leadership course. Paper presented at the Conference of the Northwest District Association for the American 6 Alliance for Health, Physical Education, Recreation, and Dance, Spokane, WA. Hasson, F. , Keeney, S. , & McKenna, H. (2000). Research guidelines for the Delphi survey technique.Journal of Advanced Nursing, 32 (4), 1008-1015. Helmer, O. , & Rescher, N. (1959). On the epistemology of the inexact science. Management Scienc e, 6, 25-53. Hill, K. Q. , & Fowles, J. (1975). The methodological worth of the Delphi forecasting technique. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 7, 179-192. Jacobs, J. M. (1996). Essential assessment criteria for physical education teacher education programs: A Delphi study. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, West Virginia University, Morgantown. Jones, C. G. (1975). A Delphi evaluation of agreement between organizations. In H. A. Linstone, & M.Turoff (Eds. ). The Delphi method: Techniques and applications (pp. 160-167). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company. Jones, H. , & Twiss, B. C. (1978). Forecasting technology for planning decision. London, UK: Macmillan Press Ltd. Judd, R. C. (1972). Use of Delphi methods in higher education. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 4 (2), 173-186. Kaplan, L. M. (1971). The use of the Delphi method in organizational communication: A case study. Unpublished master’s thesis, The Ohio State University, Columbus. Ker linger, F. N. (1973). Foundations of behavioral research.New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, Inc. Klee, A. J. (1972). The utilization of expert opinion in decision-making. AICHE Journal, 18 (6), 1107-1115. Lindeman, C. A. (1981). Priorities within the health care system: A Delphi survey. Kansas City, MO: American Nurses’ Association. Linstone, H. A. , & Turoff, M. (1975). Introduction. In H. A. Linstone, & M. Turoff (Eds. ). The Delphi method: Techniques and applications (pp. 3-12). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company. Ludlow, J. (1975). Delphi inquiries and knowledge utilization. In H. A. Linstone, & M. Turoff (Eds. ).The Delphi method: Techniques and applications (pp. 102-123). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company. Ludwig, B. G. (1994). Internationalizing Extension: An exploration of the characteristics evident in a state university Extension system that achieves internationalization. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, The Ohio State University, Colu mbus. Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique Ludwig, B. (1997). Predicting the future: Have you considered using the Delphi methodology? Journal of Extension, 35 (5), 1-4. Retrieved November 6, 2005 from http://www. oe. org/joe/1997october/tt2. html Marchant, E. W. (1988). Methodological problems associated with the use of the Delphi technique: Some comments. Fire Technology, 24 (1), 59-62. Martino, J. P. (1983). Technological forecasting for decision making. New York: North-Holland. Meyer, J. H. (1992). Rethinking the outlook of colleges whose roots have been in agriculture. Davis, CA: University of California. Miller, G. (2001). The development of indicators for sustainable tourism: Results of a Delphi survey of tourism researchers. Tourism Management, 22, 351-362. Miller, L. E. (2006, October).Determining what could/should be: The Delphi technique and its application. Paper presented at the meeting of the 2006 annual meeting of the Mid-Western Educational Research Association, Columbus, Ohio. Murray, W. F. , & Jarman, B. O. (1987). Predicting future trends in adult fitness using the Delphi approach. Research Quarterly for Exercise and Sport, 58 (2), 124-131. Oh, K. H. (1974). Forecasting through hierarchical Delphi. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, The Ohio State University, Columbus. Pill, J. (1971). The Delphi method: Substance, context, a critique and an annotated bibliography.Socio-Economic Planning Science, 5, 57-71. 7 Scheibe, M. , Skutsch, M. , & Schofer, J. (1975). Experiments in Delphi methodology. In H. A. Linstone, & M. Turoff (Eds. ). The Delphi method: Techniques and applications (pp. 262-287). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company. Taylor, R. E. , & Judd, L. L. (1989). Delphi method applied to tourism. In S. Witt, & L. Moutinho, (Eds. ). Tourism marketing and management handbook. New York: Prentice Hall. Turoff, M. , & Hiltz, S. R. (1996). Computer based Delphi process. In M. Adle r, & E. Ziglio (Eds. ).Gazing into the oracle: The Delphi method and its application to social policy and public health (pp. 56-88). London, UK: Jessica Kingsley Publishers. Ulschak, F. L. (1983). Human resource development: The theory and practice of need assessment. Reston, VA: Reston Publishing Company, Inc. Weaver, W. T. (1971). The Delphi forecasting method. Phi Delta Kappan, 52 (5), 267-273. Witkin, B. R. (1984). Assessing needs in educational and social programs. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass Publishers. Witkin, B. R. , & Altschuld, J. W. (1995). Planning and conducting needs assessment: A practical guide.Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc. Young, S. J. , & Jamieson, L. M. (2001). Delivery methodology of the Delphi: A comparison of two approaches. Journal of Park and Recreation Administration, 19 (1), 42-58. Citation Hsu, Chia-Chien & Sandford, Brian A. (2007). The Delphi Technique: Making Sense of Consensus. Practical Assessment Research & Evaluation, 12(10). Availab le online: http://pareonline. net/getvn. asp? v=12&n=10 Editors Note: Another paper on the Delphi Technique that appeared in Practical Assessment Research & Evaluation is: Yousuf, Muhammad Imran (2007).Using Experts’ Opinions through Delphi Technique. Practical Assessment Research & Evaluation, 12(4). Available online: http://pareonline. net/getvn. asp? v=12&n=4 . Authors Chia-Chien Hsu Post-doctoral Studies The Ohio State University 393 Schrock Road Worthington, OH 43085 Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol 12, No 10 Hsu & Sandford, Delphi Technique Tel: (614) 885-0763 E-mail: hsu. 127 [at] osu. edu Brian A. Sandford Assistant Professor 214 Willard Hall Occupational Education Oklahoma State University Stillwater, Oklahoma 74074 405-744-3461 brian. sandford [at] okstate. edu 8

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Solar energy Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Solar energy - Essay Example Solar power is the transferring of sunlight into electrical energy, either directly by means of photovoltaic, or indirectly by means of concentrated solar power (CSP). CSP structures utilize â€Å"lenses or mirrors and tracking systems to focus a large area of sunlight into a small beam. PV converts light into electric current using the photoelectric effect† (Chiras, 2009). Thermal mass is any substance that can be utilized to accumulate heat from the Sun. General thermal mass substances consist of ‘stone, cement and water’. In the past, they have been utilized in dry weathers or mild humid areas to keep buildings stay cool by soaking up solar energy throughout the daytime.Agriculture seeks to optimize the storage of solar energy for the yield of plants. Methods â€Å"such as timed planting cycles, tailored row orientation, staggered heights between rows and the mixing of plant varieties can improve crop yields† (Bradford, 2008). Solar sanitization can be u tilized to make salty water drinkable. The initial recorded case of this was taken place in 16th century. â€Å"A large-scale solar distillation project was first constructed in 1872 in the Chilean mining town of Las Salinas. The plant, which had solar collection area of 4,700 m2, could produce up to 22,700 L per day and operated for 40 years† (Chiras, 2009).. Solar water disinfection involves placing plastic polyethylene terephthalate bottles, filed with water, in sunlight for couple of hours. Duration of time differ according to climate and type of weather.... Thermal mass is any substance that can be utilized to accumulate heat from the Sun. General thermal mass substances consist of ‘stone, cement and water’. In the past, they have been utilized in dry weathers or mild humid areas to keep buildings stay cool by soaking up solar energy throughout the daytime. Agriculture seeks to optimize the storage of solar energy for the yield of plants. Methods â€Å"such as timed planting cycles, tailored row orientation, staggered heights between rows and the mixing of plant varieties can improve crop yields† (Bradford, 2008). Solar sanitization can be utilized to make salty water drinkable. The initial recorded case of this was taken place in 16th century. â€Å"A large-scale solar distillation project was first constructed in 1872 in the Chilean mining town of Las Salinas. The plant, which had solar collection area of 4,700 m2, could produce up to 22,700 L per day and operated for 40 years† (Chiras, 2009).. Solar water d isinfection involves placing plastic polyethylene terephthalate bottles, filed with water, in sunlight for couple of hours. Duration of time differ according to climate and type of weather from at least ‘five hours to two days’ in completely cloudy situation. It is a suggestion from the World Health Organization (WHO) as a practical way for domestic water handling as well as protected storage. More than three million people in developing nations apply this technique for their everyday drinking water. Advantages and Disadvantages Solar Energy is uncontaminated, renewable and sustainable, facilitating to safeguard the atmosphere. It does not contaminate the air by the discharge of ‘carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide, sulphur dioxide or mercury’ into the air

Facilities Management Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words - 1

Facilities Management - Essay Example Use of ‘going green buildings’ will serve to address these measures and concerns. (Cooper, ‘The Future is Bright Green’) The article provides a clear definition of the requirements of what developers should encompass in designing a green building. The building should ensure improvement of interior air quality, reduction of green house gas emission, conversion of waste to energy, reduction of water consumption, improvement of energy efficiency and reduction of waste through reuse or recycling. With these factors in mind, buildings will enhance productivity as a result of their environmental friendly nature and the wellbeing of people, both inside and outside the buildings. These factors have facilitated the development of ‘intelligent’ buildings which are adaptable and easy to use and manage. The article further demonstrates how the initiative has been embraced by shopping centers. The buildings are designed in the image of ‘going greenâ₠¬â„¢, as they are green in nature. These latest design and technological developments have ensured that buildings have increased their asset performance as well as their value (Cooper, ‘The Future is Bright Green’). The initiative reduces the element of the building depreciating and thus the building is a good value for investment. As a result of the success of green building in shopping centers, developers are eager to spread the development of these ‘intelligent’ buildings to other retail sectors that would be better suited for this initiative. The measures are mainly intended for the offices as it has been revealed that the use of the going green initiative would best be implemented in the office sector. The high level of interaction between people, machinery and systems in the offices, has called for the office sector to integrate going green measures, so as to improve the performance and effective operations of workers (Cooper, ‘The Future is Bri ght Green’). The success of the green buildings in shopping centers serves as evidence that the measure is applicable in buildings that require a lot of systems and people to co-exist, hence applying the initiative in offices would be easy and effective. In conclusion, green buildings have proven to be a success in shopping centers, and as a result, it is very ideal for the technology to be applied in the other sectors. It is important for buildings to become part of the ‘future is bright green’, as this will provide a catalyst effect to going green initiative, which seeks to protect the environment. In so doing, the world will be a healthier place to live (Cooper, ‘The Future is Bright Green’). It is evident that the effects of green gas emissions, has facilitated the death of humans and parts of the environment. Risk-Based Maintenance The article is an illustration of how risk assessment is applied in the operation of a manufacturing plant. It reve als the measures that can be applied as well as their application in increasing the level of production. Application of risk assessment by a maintenance manager can help a firm save a lot of money by reducing its production costs. In the article, risk maintenance is demonstrated using scenarios of how the application of risk assessment measures would serve to improve operations. Important equipments and machineries should be grouped, and their risk priorities established so as to ensure that they are kept running at capacity. (Barr, ‘

The Education system of China Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

The Education system of China - Essay Example The other stage is secondary education; this stage is classified in two groups, specialized education and the academic secondary education (Wang 27). The academic lower and upper middle schools are obligated to provide academic secondary education. On the other hand, a student going for vocational secondary education or specialized education can attend training for two or four years. This system provides training more low skilled personnel, technician, managers and farmers. A student at this category can attend undergraduate level of either two or three years. The two options are also known as short cycle colleges, four-year colleges and universities. They provide both academic and vocational training to students. The Chinese universities and colleges provide graduate programs that make it possible for students to attain Masters or Ph.D. degree. Additionally, undergraduate level is available in either three years or four-year educational program. Three-year program is available in short cycle colleges, universities and four-year colleges. The four-year program is offered in universities and four-year colleges. The difference here is that a student taking four-year program does not attain a bachelor’s degree (Chapman et al. 271). Adult education in Chinese educational system is a reflection of the other two categories, higher education and basic education. They include adult primary education that covers, workers primary education, education for illiterate persons and peasant farmer’s education. Secondary education covers TV and radio specialized education. Peasant and some adult workers are also provided with adult specialized secondary education. TV and radio universities are some of the categories included in Adult higher education program. Other systems available in adult higher education include worker’s colleges, cadre institutes and the correspondence colleges. The mentioned systems of adult education are available in a

An Exploration of womens role in the construction industry Essay

An Exploration of womens role in the construction industry - Essay Example typically one of the most male dominated areas of the labour market, with women working in the industry making up only 10 percent of the UK construction workforce; in the general population, this workforce amounts to about 45 percent. The importance of the female worker will be noted, as ideas aimed at bringing women into construction work are examined. There is more awareness in the general population that women are an asset to professions such as architecture, and the construction organisation needs to address how to recruit women into the industry, and retain them within the workforce for as long as possible. An examination of how women are recruited and retained throughout the labour market, and comparison with the construction industry, may provide some answers. The construction industry is one of the most important industry sectors in terms of economic growth and employment. This sector is also crucial in producing goods and investment opportunities, with around 58 percent of the EU’s production depending directly or indirectly, upon the construction industry. However, the sector’s performance in the spheres of research and innovation is poor, with less than one percent of its turnover being returned for use in research and development funding. Some research considering the position of women within science and engineering has been done, but very little is known about the role of women within construction research, and the factors which hinder the equal participation of men and women within the industry. There appears to be a lack of awareness, or acknowledgement within the profession of issues that specifically relate to women within the workforce, and towards female architects in particular. Women’s accomplishments in the architectural field are not well-known, and are also not well publicized through university programmes, awards, or other promotional materials and events. Women entering the architectural practice after completing their degree

Management Information System Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1

Management Information System - Research Paper Example Organizations are so involved in reaping the benefits afforded by this highly globalized society, that they are now compelled to bear the repercussions of the same. The internal as well as external organizational environment has changed significantly due to the presence and use of Information technology. It has not only made access of firms to international markets easier and faster, but also offered immense support to such firms with regard to managing and learning to manoeuvre the anxieties and proliferation of data in the most effective manner possible (Oz, 2008). Increased investment in multinational ventures, by local and private businesses back home, including airlines, financial institutions and even grocery stores, have made it all the more crucial to rely on these global networks for information. This is imperative for local businesses operating beyond their local and national geographical boundaries, as international dimensions begin to permeate the local corporate structures, gradually compelling such firms to adopt a more globally viable approach to business and make respective changes in their advertising and marketing policies in a way that is more acceptable to its growing multicultural customer base (Dlabay & Scott, 2005). Referring to various challenges faced by companies, as they prepare to venture into international markets, Flynn (1994: 142) remarked, that when a company moves into international markets, "the management now faces multilingual and multicultural climates, many different governments with different regulations and political systems. It also finds different currencies, multiple time zones, and many different approaches to IT and IS education". International markets differ from the domestic ones in a broad range of aspects including drastic differences in culture, social expectations, and political and economic laws, on a

Job satisfaction paper Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Job satisfaction paper - Essay Example Having good people skills helps a lot, and I was lucky that I grew up with people who taught me how to be sensitive to what other people needed so that I could help them meet those needs. I also love to spend time thinking after I learned from an older friend who was an up and coming management trainee that this is what successful managers do: think. At first, I thought it was a waste of time, but one day, when I tried it out as I planned for an important event (actually, a party for some cousins who were visiting from out of town), it dawned on me that it was cool. Spending an hour thinking, writing things down, going through the plan over and over again saved me some hours that I would have used correcting mistakes, changing plans, or saying I'm sorry for screwing up. Since that day, I invested some time to think things through instead of attacking each activity without a plan, based on sheer determination alone. This was how I learned to clarify goals, think of the best people who can take the assignment, and knowing how to communicate the goals, the assignment, and the deadline in a way that encouraged them. I also learned to make the most out of mistakes others committed, making them (and myself) see the positive side, the things we learned from those mistakes, instead of wasting time finger-pointing that got us nowhere. So much time is wasted looking for someone to blame that if people only used that time learning, they could have accomplished much more. Thinking also helps me improve my productivity. Before I work on anything, I think about why I am doing it (goal), how much time I have (time), and what I need to reach the goal within the time limit (resources). If I needed things I didn't have, I would ask for it; and if I didn't get it, I would think how I could improvise. I learned that in the real world, we cannot get everything we want, but the world still expects much from us. That's the way the world turns, so instead of whining about not having everything I needed, I instead find a way to use my creative imagination to move forward and start getting to work. I also make it a point to teach these same skills and work habits to the people I work with, more so with those whom I want to do things for me. And I am not afraid they would replace me or get higher pay, because making myself dispensable also makes me promotable. How can I be asked to work on bigger things if I don't train people to take my place More than knowing how to work and motivate others to be productive, I also have a higher goal, a mission to see the world and help other people, because I have always wanted to reach out and make a mark in other's lives. This is why I enjoy working as part of a team. One summer, I read a book (Maxwell, 1998) a friend gave me. In fact I still have it on my bedroom shelf, and it struck a raw chord inside. Right then and there, I knew that I wanted to be a leader, to make my life useful, to be different by studying and working harder and doing things not because others were doing them, but because it was the good and right thing to do. This thought has served me well ever since. What keeps me satisfied in my job The first thing is the nature of the job itself. I want to grow, learn, and contribute to the

Sexuality and literature Essay Example for Free

Sexuality and literature Essay In the domain of English literature sexuality is a prickle which broadens the horizon of mental set up and attitude. Every aspect of English literature and criticism governs with human passion and subject to sexuality for human regeneration of ideas. The entire metaphysical poetry ranging from john Donne to George Herbert explains the features of sexuality in sexuality and sexuality in sexuality. This phenomenon in history of English literature denotes inter sexuality and contextually with reference to sexuality which is related to feminist movement in the world of English literature, culture, philosophy and biblical  understanding in relation to old testament and new testament. The concept and content rejuvenates English literature in the fabrication of human bondage and humanistic trends respecting physical elements in human beings to a highest sense of veneration. This was the common practise of church farther throughout the catholic churches with nuns and pastors. The holy sense of living in English literature is related to biblical literature and criticism. Gospel of St. Mathew, St. John, st. paul etc. reveals the idea of wholly trinity the cross the Holy Spirit and Jesus Christ. The resemblance of this theological discipline in the parameter of English literature governs and administers celtic historic spirit in English literature. Therefore sexuality according to Christianity is the holiest act of performance and spreading the message of Jesus Christ to the world. The felicitation of stylistic history of Eng. Lit. Has a root in sexuality with purpose and motivation towards the god realisation in the jurisdiction of Eng. Lit. And biblical culture practised by catholic eminent personality of highest intellectual calibre throughout the world. The universal culture of this principle symbolises the pure  relationship between two sexes for bringing respectful citizen in the world of literature culture and social stratifications. In the field of Roman Catholic religion and tradition the entire gamut of Eng. Lit. Never disowns the message of sexuality as a negative aspect it is a subject of adoration in Eng. Lit. Because old Eng. Lit. , Middle English. Lit. romanticism neo classic Shakespeare play and sonnets miltons paradise lost, paradise regained Chaucer prologue to Canterbury tales Thomas hardy mayor of caustic bridge david Copperfield hard times, edgewells the invisible man.. Jane Austen Emma persuasion and pride and  prejudice, wuthering heights etc. all these literary text reveals sexuality in the form of living life with the purpose in English literature for realization and romantic vision of life. In the totality of existence Eng. lit. is the subject based on direct human perception at the physical plane of sexuality and counter intuitive sense of human relationship every character is consolidated in plot, characterisation, action, reaction, and conclusion similarly same incidence with great assertion we come across in t. s Eliot the confidationsal clerk , family reunion the waste land murder in the cathedral, etc. these works of t. s Eliot has a combination with our Indian philosophy because Eliot was well versed in Indian philosophy and integrated studies of Indian sexuality . in this connectivity t. s eliot joins the philosophical tenats of our indian culture with a mark of respct and great honor he was influenced by our upnishadikh philosophy he ends the west land by quoting upnishad with the exotations omm shanti shanti shanti this particular range of sexuality with philosophical elements harmonises the way of living in the glocal world of understanding in the truest sense sexuality is a way. Of life which cant not be lived with respct without spiritual regeneration of ideas it may b easterned or westerned way off sexuality but the common goal of humanity is to harmonise between sexuality and spirituality for universal human bondage for global peace and harmony through out the cosmos throughout the cosmos with cosmopolitan out look and humanistic sense of sensibility at large in the finale concept of sexuality in literature becomes comparative literary theses anti theses and synthesis to combine the nature human sexuality which is a natural gift from the divine it is totally universal transcending all human. Differtiation such as caste creed color and sex etc. the purpose of sexuality in literature is to practise and realise universalculture as reflected in evry cuture of the world this is the point to be investigated and immolated in our social economic political and administrative changes in the world. This is the pen ultimate exactitude and harmonisation between oxidental and oriental way of thinking in sense and philosophical calmness. In the convential sense this phenomenon logical approach. Exenorates tradition and individual talent advocated by t. s eliot in the universal fold of universalistic flow of ideas†¦

Prevent A Future Crisis

Prevent A Future Crisis The downturn of the world economy, in light of the present scenario of the global financial crisis, has resulted in the epic failure of multinationals that were once deemed infallible(Ministry Of finance, 2009). The phenomenon of post-industrialism constitutes remote causes of the crisis. Paradoxically, what was once a means to move forward has now turned into a problem that has orchestrated a worldwide collapse resulting in bankruptcy of many corporations (Davis, 2009). It may be interesting to understand how this major change which affected the real economy worldwide, also contributed to the global financial crisis which occurred at the end of this decade. This essay will discuss the main causes of the global financial crisis and then propose various steps that the government of the United Kingdom could take to prevent another crisis According to the statistics, at present only a dwindling 10% of the American population is employed in the agriculture and manufacturing industry as opposed to 60% in the pre-industrial era. The gradual but consistent decline of the working population from manufacturing to the service sector has a substantial repercussion on the global economic front. Furthermore peoples ability to work and earn is no longer dependent on their working skills but more on their intellect. To satisfy the needs of cost effective manufacturing, the jobs were off shored to other developing nations (Davis, 2009). An important feature of these large manufacturers (Davis, 2009) was that they were providing â€Å"job security, health insurance, and retirement benefits† to their employees but now even these â€Å"academy employers† have begun to withhold guarantees, such as their employees pension schemes and retirees health benefits (Davis, 2009) Although it is a quite remote cause of the last financial crisis, the post-industrialisation set some of the indispensable conditions for the crisis to happen. Indeed, the employers will to â€Å"loosen the ties that bound employees to firms† contributed in a significant manner to the development of institutional investment. (Davis, 2009) The introduction of the 401(k) plan saw to the demise of the ‘defined-benefit scheme that induced loyalty among its employees. The new ‘defined-contribution plans on a superficial scale were beneficial to the employers but they further weakened employee ties, adding to the effects of earlier discussed post-industrialization. The investment risks were no longer borne by the employer but by the employees. Consequently the market saw a steady rise from 6% investment in stocks by individual households in the 1980s to an all time high of 52% investment 2001 (Davis, 2009). This substantial increase mainly benefited mutual funds (which consequently invest largely in US corporations), although it served the interests of most of institutional investors categories given their interconnection. Although this ‘roll-over of funds seemed, at first, beneficial to institutions as well as households it eventually had severe consequences with the decline of the market. (Davis, 2009) These two major economic and (subsequent) financial changes contributed to weaken the system by excessively reinforcing the links between the real economy and the financial sphere. These ever-closer ties between institutions and households, between institutions and workers or retirees and between institutions themselves explain how a little spark could result in a highly destructive fire. It seems that the sub-prime crisis can be considered as the â€Å"spark†. (Holmes and Tamara, 2009) â€Å"The Federal Reserves accommodative interest rate policy of the early 2000s is generally seen as what has caused the real estate bubble burst† (Bhalla,2009). The sub-prime problem arose from the fact that buyers without sufficient purchasing power were being funded by the greedy financial institutions because of their objective to maximize profits in the short run (Yandle, 2010). Debtors were also given options by the bank, wherein they could avoid the increase in the mortgage rate simply by refinancing within the stipulated time (Acharya et al., 2009) This, of course, was under the assumption that housing prices would continuously appreciate. However housing prices deteriorated at an alarming rate of 17% per year from the year 2008 and this continued to cause a chain-reaction of multitude of problems that were dependent on the ‘refinancing option (Bhalla,2009). The last main â€Å"ingredient† of the turmoil is directly related to the sub-prime crisis. It may be considered as the most â€Å"poisonous† one. First, because it made the crisis hard to predict and therefore hard to assess and solve. Secondly, because it played the most significant role in diffusing the crisis effects quickly and at a worldwide scale. This â€Å"ingredient† is the complicated â€Å"securitization† process According to Gerald F. Davis, the process of securitization consists of transforming assets â€Å"into securities that are traded in markets†. This practice is linked to the shift in the banking activity, from the traditionalâ€Å"originate to hold† banking model to a â€Å"originate to distribute† model. One type of security which is particularly relevant in the case of the financial crisis is mortgage-backed bonds, an asset-backed security that is secured by a collection of mortgages. The problem is that, if the mortgagor becomes insolvent the value of the security is likely to disintegrate. Securitization processes increased dramatically at the end of the 21st century, in reason of the demand generated by worldwide institutional investors (especially pension funds and mutual funds (Davis, 2009). Therefore the impact of the collapse was eventually significant as in the case of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (Butler, 2009) Before discussing the possible steps we have to make two distinctions. First we shall distinguish between the â€Å"emergency measures† which have been implemented in order to help the economy to recover in the short term (e.g.: bail-out packages) and those which should prevent future crises. We shall focus on the second category. Another important point is that we shall only deal with the steps that should be implemented in the United Kingdom. Thus we will not expose solutions to solve the causes which originated in the United States such as the sub-prime crisis. Only the US government is competent to deal with this problem; ideas of changes include, inter alia, requiring licenses and state certification for all loan brokers and individual retail mortgage loan officers (Muolo, 2008) In order to reduce the effects of another financial crisis, the United Kingdom should concentrate their efforts on three main issues: the effects of bail-out policies, the regulation of financial institutions and of institutional investors and the regulation of non-banks. Poole argues that bail-out policies have an enabling impact on the behaviour of companies and financial institutions. According to him â€Å"every economist understands [that] a policy of bailing out failing firms will increase the number of financial crises and the number of bailouts†. (Poole, 2007). Indeed he explains that these practices give incentives for firms to â€Å"take too much risk and hold little capital† (Poole, 2007).In order to reduce the â€Å"safety net†, he proposes to diminish the insurance coverage of financial institutions. Although this proposal concerns the United States and is dedicated to the Federal Reserve System (the author is himself President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), it would certainly suit the UK given the bail-out policy implemented there as well (see the governments emergency  £37bn recapitalisation of the UK banking sector (Wearden and Kollewe, 2008). We have to keep in mind that the diffusion of â€Å"toxic assets† from the US to the world (including the UK) has been possible because of the trade of these assets on financial markets. The FSA may need to impose more severe rules on institutional investors and banks (in regards to their investment activities). It has been argued that risks linked to securities were sometimes difficult to assess. Moreover several banks acknowledged that they were unable to estimate with accuracy the quantity of â€Å"toxic assets† they had acquired. Stephen says that any company having excessive growth due to risky financial investments are the ones on high risk of a collapse (Schwarzman, 2008). The British regulators here have a very important role to play and they should improve their oversight over all the institutions participating in the securities market, as the US regulators should improve theirs over the bonds market (which played a significant part in the sub-prime crisis). The largely unregulated â€Å"Shadow banks† have gradually emerged as new players in the financial intermediation process (Llewellyn, D. 2009). According to Butler and Patrick (2009) the Government of UK is trying to regulate the non-banks through a process called â€Å"shadow banking† for institutions such as hedge funds, private-equity funds and insurance companies. To save tax-payers money it is necessary to have regulations in place and initiate shadow banking, however this practice has still not been implemented because of the complex mechanisms of these institutions (Butler, 2009) In conclusion, this paper discussed the various causes of the financial crisis which started way back from the post-industrial era and led to other severe problems in terms of the defined contribution by the employers. A further factor included premature acceptance and use of securitization, and shifting of risk by major financial institutions. While it is of utmost importance to know the causes of the crisis, more emphasis must be laid on the steps taken to avoid another turmoil. Despite this range of propositions, this discussion cannot omit the paramount need for more international coordination and regulation between political and financial authorities. As Acharya and others explain, â€Å"Although cross-border banking and financial flows have expanded in scale, much of bank supervision remains national† (Acharya et al. 2009). Thus, crisis at the international scale are not likely to be efficiently withstood if national regulations are not accompanied by international ones. Finally, and to refer to President Kennedys quotation, we may assert that a crisis is above all the opportunity to evaluate the dangerous nature of the current system, assessing its strength and flaws, and to improve it, when required. Bibliography: Davis, G. F. (2009). The Rise and fall of Finance and the End of the Society of Organizations. Academy of Management Perspectives, 23 (3), pp. 27-44. Ministry Of finance. 2009. Statement of G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. [Online] Available at http://www.mof.go.jp//english/if/g7_090214.pdf [Accessed 16 February 2010] Butler, P. 2009. Learning from financial regulations mistakes. McKinsey Quarterly Business Source Premier issue 3. pp. 68-74. Holmes and Tamara E. 2009. Did they Cause the Credit Crisis? Black Enterprise; 39(6), pp. 74-77) Bhalla, V. K 2009. Global Financial Turmoil. Journal of Management Research 9(1), pp. 43-56 Yandle, Bruce 2010. The lost trust- The real cause of the financial meltdown. Independent Review 14(3), pp. 341-361. Acharya et al. 2009. The Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Causes and Remedies. FinancialMarkets, Institutions Instruments. 18(2), pp. 89-137 Butler, E. 2009. The Financial Crisis: Blame Governments, Not Bankers In: Booth. P. Verdict on the Crash: Causes and Policy Implications. 1st ed. The Institute of Economic Affairs. pp. 55-57 Muolo, P. 2008. What I Would Do About the Crisis If I Ran the Regulatory Zoo. National Mortgage News, 33(3) , pp. 5-5 Poole, W. 2007. Responding to financial crisis: What role for the fed? CATO Journal, 27(2), pp. 149-155 Wearden, G and Kollewe, J. 2008.How the banking bail-out works | Business|. [Online] Available at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/13/banking-banks [Accessed: 18 February 2010.] Schwarzman, S. 2008. Some Lessons of the Financial Crisis. Wall Street Journal Eastern Edition 252(107), pp. 19-19 Llewellyn, D. 2009. The Global financial crisis: The role of financial innovation In: Booth. P. Verdict on the Crash: Causes and Policy Implications. 1st ed. The Institute of Economic Affairs. pp. 129-130